The Salva Kiir Wars: The first war was for the Nuer, the second for the Dinka and this one for the Equatorians and Murle
Analysis,
By The Stuff Writers,
President Salva Kiir in Military Uniform touring the military headquarters at Bilpham(Photo credit: Salva Kiir fanpage)
June 14, 2020(SSNN) — Notwithstanding that the recent appointments of the new army leadership violates the Revitalized Agreement of the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, it is evidently clear that president Salva Kiir Mayardit is planning for war. Unlike the first war that was commanded by a Nuer, Gen. James Hoth Mai, and the second war that was commanded by a Dinka, Gen. Paul Malong Awan, this war will be commanded by an Equatorian, Gen. Johnson Juma Okot, and led by a Murle, Lt. Gen. Marshal Stephen Bababen.
The first war saw cleansing of the Nuer in Juba and massive destruction of the Upper Nile region and the second war ended with the emergence of two rebellions, specifically in Aweil, the very home state of the then Chief of Staff, Gen. Paul Malong Awan. Like Hoth Mai, who endured humiliation after his removal, Malong was evicted and humiliated which led to his defection.
Similarly, this war will not end well with Gen. JJ Okot and his Equatorian people. The two regions of Upper Nile and Bhar el Ghazal where the previous Chief of Staffs came from are now in full state of lawlessness. Both the Upper Nile and Bhar el Ghazal have internal and cross border wars between the Dinka and the Dinka, the Dinka and the Nuer, and the Nuer and other tribes like the Murle. This mess did not stem out of the blue but from the guns that spilt over from the local defense forces that were mobilized and abandoned by the previous Chiefs of Staff.
In the same essence, Gen. JJ Okot will be used to mobilize Equatorian youth and afterward he will be dumped and humiliated, just like Paul Malong Awan and his predecessor, James Hoth Mai. Unfortunately the Equatorians will pay twice. First, they will be displaced, massacred, raped and endured all kinds of human rights abuses like in 2016. In addition, when Gen. JJ Okot is relieved, the local forces that will be used in this war will be abandoned and left with guns that they will use to raid cattles and fight inter-tribal wars within the Equatorian region. The Equatorian region that is now relatively peaceful will be left vulnerable to gun violent just like the Upper Nile and Bhar el Ghazal.
Gen. JJ Okot has no powers
Like Gen. Hoth Mai, who had no powers, Gen. JJ Okot is just a ceremonial Chief of Defense forces. He has no power to dictate anything or to oppose an order. He is put there as a symbol, just to be used to mobilize the Equatorians and nothing more. In doing so, president Salva Kiir will deceive the International Community and the illiterate South Sudanese Equatorians that he is inclusive and unitary but in the real sense, the army generals and politicians that make decisions are all Dinka. Among the top leadership that will closely monitor the Chief of Defense forces, seven are Dinka extremists and most of them are members of the Jieng Council of Elders;
Seven Dinka Generals
Lt. Gen. Charles Madut Akol – Inspector General (IG)
Lt. Gen. Santino Deng Wol – Administration and Finance
Lt. Gen. Ring Tueny Mabor – Chief of Military Intelligence
Lt. Gen. Chol Thon Balok – Deputy Chief of Defense Forces
Lt. Gen. Malual Majok Chiengkuac Jok – Moral Orientation and Chaplainship
Lt. Gen. Butruce Bol Bol – Ground Forces
Maj. Gen. Samson Mabior – Air Force
Three Nuer Generals
Lt. Gen. Peter Dor Monjur – Riverine
Lt. Gen. Thoi Chany Reat – Logistics and Procurement
Lt. Gen. James Koang Chuol – Training
One Murle General
Lt. Gen. Marshal Stephen Bababen – Military Operations
Playing Tribal Cards:
Salva Kiir’s appointments are tribally motivated. First, he picks Dinka general with names that are used by multiple communities such as Nuer and Shilluck communities to confuse communities. Names like Bol Bol, Malual Majok Chiengkuac Jok, Chol Thon Balok and Santino Deng Wol are used by multiple communities but in reality president Salva Kiir has no interest to work with other communities apart from his own tribal men and women plus a few individuals from the Nuer and Equatorian communities who have no loyalty to their communities but just to positions.
Lt. Gen. Chol Balok as Deputy Chief of Defense Forces(Photo credit: supplied/SSNN)
These appointments are meant to send a mixed signal. The three Nuer generals are not loyal to the Nuer community but to individuals. Two Nuer generals, Peter Dor Monjur and Thoi Chany, are loyal to Taban Deng Gai and they have no support from their respective Guit and Ayod counties. Also, Gen. Koang Chuol Ranleey, who recently defected from the SPLM/A-IO, has no loyalty and no support from his own Jikany-nuer community. The Eastern Jikany is piecefully divided. Therefore, every politician and military general is running after his own personal interests and as such they are very vulnerable to predators like Salva Kiir who want to use them for wars and other personal interests. Besides, they are given less strategic positions where they will have no access to money and direct command of the army.
On the other hand, the Murle ethnic, Lt. Gen. Marshal Stephen Bababen, is put in Military Operations purposely to supply the Murle youth with weapons and also to dismantle Lt. Gen. David Yauyau whose egos are now touching the rooftop. Yauyau leaned too much towards the former Chief of Staff, Gen. Jok Riak and the former Minister of Defense and Veteran Affairs, Gen. Kuol Manyang Juuk. His recent working relationship with these two generals tied him to the Bor community more than to the Bhar el Ghazal community and to change this, another General from the Murle had to be promoted and weaponized.
Violation of the Peace Agreement
Everytime Salva Kiir plans for war, he first shuffles the army to ensure that he has the right men to fight his war in the right place. This has been a routine since 2012 but the recent reshuffling is a serious violation to the Security Arrangement of the current peace agreement. By appointing the new army leadership, Salva Kiir aims to send an indication that there is no security mechanisms in place at this point.
The appointments have dismantled the security mechanisms that were already institutionalized and whether he will appoint new teams to joint the mechanisms or not will entirely depend on him but even if he appoints them, this process will be delayed and it will delay the implementation of the security arrangement further.
Conclusively, the security arrangement has collapsed and it is upto the SPLM/A-IO, IGAD, TROIKA and the International community to accept it or not!
Facebook Comments