OPINION: WARNING TO SOUTH SUDANESE LEADERS: COUP IS IN THE STAGES IN JUBA

June 18, 2019 Opinions

South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir attends an urgent session for the Summit of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) on South Sudan in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa June 10, 2014. REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri (ETHIOPIA – Tags: CIVIL UNREST POLITICS)

June 18th, 2019(SSNN) — From now to July 9, 2019 is going to be a critical time in the history of South Sudan. Though the Revitalized Peace Agreement known as R-ARCSS, 2018 offers a promising end to the conflict in South Sudan, the way things are moving now as our sources within Juba and in Khartoum unearthed, the prospect of war is higher than ever.

It is something regrettable as citizens are being lulled into the false hope that there is peace whose implementation is going to begin in November 2019 while the conflict is being brewed somewhere in the offices within the Government and in the bush. As the facts on the ground indicate, the period between May and November 2019 was not the time for implementation of the security Arrangement as Dr. Riek would wish the public to accept but it is the time for politicians in oppositions to prepare for war. Our sources within Juba and Khartoum have revealed this fact.

To implement the war strategy, the politicians who are opposed to the government though some of whom are working in the government have opened up two fronts with ultimate aim of removing President Kiir and his government. The plan is that those individuals inside the government are to work in coordination with the opposition leader, Dr. Riek Machar, to remove the President as well as overthrowing the government by all means; Or some to be informant to Dr. Riek Machar as he plans for the war in few days or months to come.

Those working in the government but allied to Dr. Riek Machar or having the plan to overthrow the government are: General Taban Deng Gai, the first Vice President, General Akol Koor, the Director General of National Security, Tut Kew, the Presidential Advisor on Security, Ateny Wek Ateny, the Press Secretary of the President, Angelina Teny, the Wife of Dr. Riek Machar with James Koang Chol (Angelina is currently in Juba), Martin Elia Lomoro, the Minister of Cabinet Affairs, Micheal Chiengjiek, the Minister of Internal Affairs, Major General Riak Machar, Deputy of Chief of Military Intelligence (CMI) and many others.

However, our sources have further disclosed that Ateny Wek Ateny is working closely with the above mentioned individuals because he expected to be sacked from his job as the Press Secretary and this anticipated sacking has pushed him to the brim of opposition. He is waiting for sacking and on the spot to declare his defection from or opposition against the government of President Kiir Mayardit. In addition, Ateny Wek Ateny is trying to apply diplomacy by mobilizing the people from Gogrial State where the President comes from to talk to the President to abort the plan of sacking him. One of the people whom he has made to be his closest friend in implementing his diplomatic mission of persuading the President is Major Bol Madut Chol, the member of National Security, who is also the most feared killer of youth under the directives of National Security. Bol is currently working hard to ensure that Ateny Wek Aeny Wek is not sacked by the President.

The abovementioned group of the people working closely with the government has already started implementing the agenda of removing the President. This agenda was started in March 2019 when they met in Khartoum earlier this year in the house of the Sudan Former Security Chief, Salah Ghosh. Since March 2019, the abovementioned people have been working hard within the government to ensure that the government is weakened within and eventually overthrown. The climax was reached in May this year when they almost executed their plan under the cover of Red Card Movement (RCM). When their plan was detected, they aborted it and went underground to make mobilization and it was the same reason made Dr. Riek Machar to demand for the extension of time of the formation of the Government of National Unity. The demand by Dr. Riek Machar of the extension of the Formation of the Transitional Government of National Unity has nothing to do with time to properly implement the security Arrangement but it was a cover behind which for Riek and those in the government to adequately prepare for war. This came about when Dr. Riek and his group realized that their plan to fight was discovered and if they went on they could not succeed.

As explained above, there is a lot of mobilization going on both inside and outside the government. For instance, General Akol Koor has now sent Major General of Military Intelligence Operation, Kuek Akot Chongok to Gogrial State to mobilize the people of Pakal Agook against the President. Kuek Akot is currently at place called Mayom Totieen, which is his Headquarters for mobilizing citizens against the President.

In Juba, Major General Riek Machuor Kulang, the Deputy CMI in collaboration with Major General Garang Akook is mobilizing their people at Shirakat within Juba to rise against the President and the Government. These two Generals are in constant communication with the First Vice President, General Taban. The subject of their consultation is on the preparation in the execution of the plan to remove the President by overthrowing the government.

As I have already stated above that the people above are implementing the plan to overthrow the government within or to direct the SPLM-IO where to strike to defeat the government, they have always in constant meeting or consultations. For instance, they held a meeting yesterday (on June 17, 2019) at Pyramid hotel in Juba. That meeting was attended by the Ambassador of the Republic of Sudan to South Sudan. The Agenda of the meeting was the way the Military Council should support Dr. Riek Machar, General Taban and his group on how to remove the President and SPLM government from power.

In fact, the plan to remove the government despite the presence of the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement was held in the USA this year. Concerning the USA plan, our sources have discovered that the meeting was held in the USA in which the SPLM-IO came up with the plan to remove the government of President Kiir in collaboration within some people within the government. In that meeting as our sources discovered, the plan was to come up with a slogan called Federal Democratic Republic of Upper Nile with sixteen (16) points explaining reasons for its creation.

However, this was just made as a curtain behind which the real plan, which is how to defeat the government, would be executed. Hence, Federal Democratic Republic Upper Nile is basically intended to an eventual point of negotiation by the rebels with the government in case the plan to overthrow the government fails. At that point, the rebels could control Greater Upper Nile and declare it as independent State, which would force the government into negotiation and concession on power and give into the demand of the people of the Greater Upper Nile for Federalism based on their interests.

It was in the same meeting the plan to mobilize the citizens within the government and outside to create confusion and in the process defeat the government which explains the existence of Red Card Movement (RCM) was hatched. As it is clearly shown in the structure and hierarchy of Red Card Movement, majority of its members are members of the SPLM-IO. This was because majority of those who attended the meeting were supporters or sympathizers of Dr. Riek Machar.

In addition, General Taban, the First Vice President attended the meeting personally and it was in that meeting it was further agreed that several war fronts and training grounds for the SPLM-IO in different parts of South Sudan to be established. The purpose for the plan to have training grounds and rebel groups in different parts of South Sudan was to address the weaknesses of 2016 conflict that only targeted Juba, which led to massive defeat and eventual destruction of SPLA-IO and then detention of Dr. Riek in South Africa.

Dr. Riek Machar is currently bitter about that defeat and he is of the view now that for the conflict to be fought this time successfully, it should be fought in different parts of South Sudan. This explains the existence of his armed groups in different location of South Sudan. Dr. Riek Machar has the rebel groups in the following places in South Sudan—he has 2000 in Lokoyo, 4000 in Lasu in the side of Yei at the border of South Sudan with Congo, 1500 at Magwi, he also has 25000 at Torit, in Bongo has 500 and in Khartoum has 8000 members all well-armed. The location of these rebel groups under the command of Riek shows that the war planned is going to be fought in different parts of South Sudan.

Apart from those already trained and having guns, he has recruited over three thousand Nuer youth exclusively who are currently undergoing training in Tharpam at Ethiopian Border with South Sudan. What is peculiar about those recruits and their training is that the language of instruction is in Nuer throughout. I do not know exactly what should be the intention behind the recruitment of these youth? Is Riek intending to train Nuer Militias or does he want to train National Army whose language of communication is or what is the intention? Or, is he planning to impose Nuer Language after he becomes the President in case he manages to overthrow the government?

One of the States being courted by Dr. Riek current to join him in his war of overthrowing the government is Greater Lakes State after failing to persuade General Malong to join him. As our sources learned within Kenya, Dr. Riek Machar recently went to Kenya Capital Nairobi to meet General Malong with the intention of persuading him and if he accepted, he would have joined him in the war of removing President Kiir. However, that meeting did not yield fruits as General Malong declined to join him on the grounds that Dr. Riek could not be trusted and also that the country should not be destroyed, which were the excuses General Malong gave Dr. Riek in rejecting his advances in the political courtship.

It is found out by our sources that when General Malong declined, Dr. Riek was very much angered and left without even giving General Malong goodbye. After the supporters of Dr. Machar learned the refusal of General Malong, they began branding General Malong as being a member of the Government. The conduct of Dr. Riek Machar and his supporters towards General Malong and the war in general shows that Dr. Riek and his supporters are not rationale in their thinking and therefore are not any different from the current government and its supporters. It is the fact that to Dr. Riek there should be no differing views, one must either be his member or an enemy but if he or she is not willing to join him.

What the Government of South Sudan should also know is that Sudan is highly involved in the plan to overthrow the government. Recently as our sources discovered, Dr. Riek was supported financially by Military Council of Sudan to go and procure some weapons and support in different parts of Arab world. From there he came back with several arsenals of weapons some of which have already been smuggled into the country and currently kept in Ayod and Fangak State. Some guns were detained in Khartoum which made Dr. Riek Machar return from South Sudan to go and negotiate the release of those guns.

It is likely that those guns have been released by the Transitional Military Council of Sudan as it supports Dr. Riek Machar. The Military Council is supporting Dr. Riek Machar on the ground that President Kiir was supporting Former President, El Bashir who was their enemy. Therefore, they are determined to give support to Dr. Riek Machar against the government of South Sudan to remove the President as well. As our sources further revealed, there is amassing up of rebels in areas of Maiwut, Pagak, Jekow and other areas cross the Ethiopian boarders including Tharpam in Gambella is harbouring a good number of rebels.

Specifically, rebels of Riek Machar are gathered in Thooch (Uleng), Jotome, Pagak, and Maiwut Town and some other villages in the western bank of river sabot like Dutjiok, Palang and Gachthil (Wechgatluak Rik). These are areas already controlled by rebels. The SPLA-IO has already planned to open two areas for the evacuation and treatment of the wounded during the war which is expected to begin soon. These two areas are: one is to be located in Rwanda and the other in Ethiopia.

In short, the plan is already underway and the conflict may erupt any time which is going to be more disastrous than 2016 war in Juba. Therefore, I am writing this report to give warning to South Sudanese Leaders that there is a coup is in the stages in Juba leaving alone the mobilization being carried out by rebels. In respect to the army, there is a lot of mobilizing going on as the rebellion as penetration of the National Army. For example, Major General Akol Majok, Commander of Division Two, Major General Keer Keer, Commander of Division Five and Louis Natale of National Security. These Army Generals are working under the Directives of

I have given this report and as I know my Nuer brothers will conclude that I am not from Nuer but a member of security using the name of Nuer people. I do not care about what they may think about me, what I care is that the country should not be destroyed by Nuer fundamentalist under cover of fighting for change. If the government ignores this warning and the country falls into mess then it has itself to blame. In security matters and in particular in politics, any report should always be taken seriously and action taken before making analysis.

NB//: the writer is South Sudanese citizen residing in Khartoum Sudan. He is having Bachelor Degree B.A. in International Relations at Boston University.

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