FULL ANALYSIS: Why The Parties Will Not Form The RTGNU on November 12, 2019
Analysis;
By Deng Elijah,
South Sudan rival leaders, Dr. Riek Machar Teny, leader of the SPLM/A(IO) and his former boss, President Salva Kiir(Photo credit: supplied)
Saturday, November 02, 2019(SSNN) — The recent statement by Dr. Riek Machar Teny, the designated First Vice President and the Chairman of the SPLM in Opposition, that “the SPLM/A(IO) do not want to be part of another shady deal”, which was based on a firsthand experience from 2015-16 peace agreement, has instigated unintended but expected uproars among the South Sudanese populations, especially in Juba and across social media. On one hand, Machar’s statement has extremely outraged, disheartened and distressed “the government”, now left in pain and anguish of grief strolling from statement to statement, media to media and city to city hoping to convince whoever may lend an ear to persuade the main armed opposition leader, Dr. Riek Machar Teny, to consent to the formation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity on November 12th, 2019.
On the other hand, Dr. Riek Machar, Dr. Lam Akol, Pagan Amum, other opposition leaders and their parties do not want the government to be formed by November 12, 2019. Precisely, they demand an extension of the pre-transitional period by at least three months to ensure that the pre-transitional arrangement mechanisms are implemented as stipulated in the Peace Agreement (R-ARCSS) before the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity could be formed – unless by miracles the parties complete the implementation of the remaining provisions within the next 10 days. Whether or not the government should be formed by November 12th, 2019 is a question of whether the provisions of the Pre-Transitional period have been successfully implemented or not. This analysis aims to scrutinize the major provisions of the Pre-Transitional Period that should determine whether the RTGNU should be formed by November 12th or not. So bear with me!.
Part I: If The RTGNU Were To Be Formed on November 12, 2019
Although the ordinary citizens, who are living in deplorable conditions and direly need peace, are left stranded in a blame game of who is right and who is wrong, and whether the government should be formed or not, it is important to enlighten the South Sudanese and friends to understand that it is not just a matter of forming a new government for the sake of it or a question of forming a new government by a specific deadline but rather a question of meeting the stipulated prereqs before the agreed deadline so that another 2 millions people do not get displaced and tens of thousands of lives and property are not jeopardized, killed or destroyed, as we witnessed when security arrangement was circumvented in 2016 leading to a dogfight with irreconcilable aftermaths .
In propositional logic, this conditional dilemma where one condition or a premise leads to another, requires a simple rule of inference known as Modus Ponens [read as “if p then q”], which implies that as long as p is true then q must be true otherwise q is false. In the case of South Sudan, the November 12th deadline or any future deadline is dependent on the provisions of that period and they[deadlines] can only be met, if and only if, the provisions of the Pre-Transitional Period are implemented, PERIOD. The parties cannot form the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity(RTGNU) whether in November, 2019 or in June, 2020 unless the General Provisions Applicable during the Pre-transitional period or as provided for in article 1.4 of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan(R-ARCSS) are implemented.
Thus, what the South Sudanese should demand to know at the moment are the major provisions that should have been undertaken during the last 13 months of the pre-transitional period and whether they were implemented or not. According to article 1.4.3 the activities that were supposed to be implemented during the agreed eight (8) months Pre–Transitional Period, include but are not limited to:
Article 1.4.3.1 reads “Dissemination of the Revitalised ARCSS to South Sudanese people inside the country, in different cities and refugee camps in neighbouring countries, and in the Diaspora, so that the people can understand, support and own it”
Was this article implemented? NO! Instead of President Salva Kiir, Dr. Riek Machar and other opposition leaders to work hand in hand to disseminate the Revitalized ARCSS to South Sudanese within the three regions of South Sudan and also in the neighboring countries and diaspora, the government tried to substitute this article and article 1.4.3.3 (below) with what they call the “National Dialogue” that never materialized. In brief, this article was not implemented and therefore RARCSS has not been disseminated, and as such the people neither understand nor own and support the peace deal.
Article 1.4.3.2 reads “Carrying out the tasks entrusted to the Technical Boundary Committee (TBC), Independent Boundaries Commission (IBC), and 5 the Referendum Commission on Number and Boundaries of States (RCNBS)”
Did these committees resolve the states and boundaries controversy? Obviously NO and Salva Kiir has just formed yet another committee. Historically speaking, or dating back to October 2, 2015, when Salva Kiir first introduced his 28 states, half of which were allocated to his Dinka tribe, the main purpose of these controversial states was not only to grab non-Dinka land and creates more cross-border conflicts but specifically to derail any chance of peace and political stability in the country. Time and again, dictators create inter-ethnic wars to divert attention from political conflicts to ethnic wars.
In the case of South Sudan, with these 32 states, President Kiir has a chance to create more wars be it between different tribes or within the same tribes and also between the government and the opposition parties who are opposed to this controversial idea. Again, the intention is crystal clear – to maintain muddy status quo. Therefore, this idea is the best deal breaker the regime ever thought of and as long as Salva Kiir wants to cling on a shady power, he will never reverse the decree that created these states. Instead they will only intensify this campaign to inflict more wounds on the victims and those who are opposed to this idea.
Unless the opposition change their thin line of thinking and come up with more effective strategies on how to encounter this idea, this article alone will hold the country hostage for a few years to come, which is exactly the position the government wants to trap the opposition into while the kleptocrats continue to loot resources, print more money and ride the country to hell. Afterall, they got absolutely nothing to lose!
Article 1.4.3.3 reads “A process of national healing and reconciliation that shall be led by the Parties, faith based groups and civil society groups inside and outside of the Republic of South Sudan.” Again, this article was not implemented!
As stipulated in this article, a process of national healing and reconciliation should have been established and led by the parties to the agreement, faith based groups and civil society; however, the regime instead established its own mini initiatives such as the national day of prayers, prayers in J1, national dialogue and other alternative initiatives or selected mechanisms that were neither inclusive nor groundbreaking. If anything, the only prayers that shaded some lights of hope were the prayers at the Vatican City, Holy See, under the auspice of Pope Francis and other spiritual leaders but again this was all watered down before the leaders arrived in Africa. Still this initiative was not inclusive and should never have substituted but complemented a nationwide national healing and reconciliation.
Article 1.4.3.4: The agreed security arrangement activities;
The agreed security arrangement activities include demilitarization of the civilians centers, cantonment, training and merging of at least 83,000 forces which was later scaled down to 50% of 83,000. So far all these activities are at the most basic step, which is cantonment and registration of forces and recently President Kiir has admitted that it is his fault because he did not authorize the release of the funding for these implementations. The only progress that was announced very recently is the training and graduation of some of the military trainers that would be deployed to train the unified army. This process has been very slow and even if it is completed without adequate supply of food, mosquito nets, water, and other basic needs, military and political will, soldiers will desert such cantonments..
Other important provisions of the pre-transitional period include article 1.4.3.5, which deals with the incorporation of the Revitalised ARCSS in the Transitional Constitution of the Republic of South Sudan, 2011 (as amended) and article 1.4.3.6 which calls for reviewing and drafting of necessary bills as per the Revitalised ARCSS.
In sum, these activities and other essential mechanisms are not implemented, particularly because the government did not release the agreed budget and Salva Kiir has attested to this the other day. This was done strategically to cripple the peace agreement. Therefore if President Salva Kiir or any other rubber stamp organ wanted the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity to be formed on time, then they should have invested all the little resources on the critical provisions of the peace agreement. Unfortunately the unfit government prioritized giving money to members of parliament to buy luxurious V8 vehicles, buying presidential jet for Salva Kiir, purchasing military hardwares, constructions of roads in Bhar el Ghazal, paying hotel bills, bribing international firms to block establishment of the Hybrid Court and sending huge delegations abroad.
It’s therefore a mere misrepresentation of facts to blame Riek Machar or any other opposition groups that has no significant control over resources. In fact the SPLM/A(IO) gave up its control of the contested Unity State Oil Fields which adds 60,000 barrels a day and that bumped up oil production from 120, 000 barrels a day to 180,000. The extra 60, 000 barrels of oil per day should have been enough to fund the peace agreement but that hasn’t been the case. Whom to blame?
Part II: Release of Agreed Funding and Extension of the Pre-transitional Period:
South Sudan President, Salva Kiir Mayardit, and his bodyguard, getty image…
Given that President Salva Kiir has honestly admitted that he failed the Pre-Transitional Period when he failed to release funding for the implementation of the outstanding provisions, which is just everything that has to be implemented, it is important to FIRST hold president Kiir accountable for his negligence, ignorance and arrogance. This was not just a small mistake but a critical violation of the peace agreement that deserves not just condemnations from the South Sudanese people, the region, peace guarantors, AU, EU and TROIKA but also some punishments that may include individual sanctions to ensure that the parties do not repeat such violations and hold the country hostage again.
When one signatory or party intentionally misuses his or their powers to delay peace or encourage violence and possible return to war, the peace monitoring mechanisms such as CTSAMVM, RJMEC and UNMISS should take notes of such impediments and report them to the higher chambers such as IGAD and the United Nations or otherwise confront them forthwith as long as such action(s) falls within their mandates.
Secondly, it is important that President Salva Kiir has openly pleaded guilty and promised to release funding this time, however, given that the same Salva Kiir has failed to implement his numerous undertakings on several occasions, it is vital for the parties and peace guarantors to deliberate on this promise and put serious measures in place to ensure that funds are released on a timely schedule that is consistent and without further strings attached by any of the parties. I would suggest, one of such measures would be to agree on a portion of oil, say some barrels of oil per day, that should be allocated to the implementation of the peace agreement. Once that is established, the parties should agree to create an account where such money would be deposited into right from the point of sale or by the buyers of the oil. This account could be managed by the NPTC or any other independent peace organ and this would erase the issue of counting on the mercy of one man to release funding for peace implementation.
Thirdly, the promise to release funding for implementation of the pre-transitional period that has already passed automatically amounts to calling for an extension of that period otherwise what would be the point of releasing that money now when you want to move to the next period? Such a budget was meant for implementation of programs (not for loan repayments) and those programs have to be installed before the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity is formed. Therefore President Kiir needs to get out of this state of confusion and reconcile what he says with the realities on the ground. In simple terms, this promise would make sense only if President Kiir means business this time: i.e. release funds, extend the pre-transitional period and implement all the provisions in letter and spirit, otherwise the end game would be an outbreak of the civil war comes next dry season!
Part III: Who Needs Peace Between Riek Machar and Salva Kiir
Although politicians like Dr. Luka Deng Biong and Mama Rebecca Nyandeng, the wife of late Dr. John Garang de Mabior, who should know better, want the nation and sympathizers to believe that it is Dr. Riek Machar or the Nuer that do not want peace in the country, none of them has lost what Riek Machar has lost in this conflict.
In term of personal lost, Dr. Machar lost his own son, very close relatives and bodyguards when he was rounded up in 2016 at Salva Kiir’s stronghold, J1. His less than 150 bodyguards fought to the last man. They were outnumbered and outgunned. Almost all of them were killed, and Dr. Riek narrowly survived because the bodyguards inside the palace did not exchange fire knowing that all the leaders that were inside the hall including Riek, Kiir and Malong would have been killed. After surviving in J1, he was pursued through thick and thin to Democratic Republic of Congo, a journey that took almost 40 days without any basic supplies.
Satellite imaging showing Machar’s hometown, Leer county, after it was erased down by government forces in 2014(Photo credit: Small Arms projects)
Back in Unity State, his hometown of Leer has been erased. Private hospitals and schools are destroyed beyond recognition, his people are displaced to swamps, women are raped, boys are castrated, cattle are raided and other animals are displaced. It is not only Leer that has been destroyed by the government machineries, which were hired from multiple countries in the region, but nearly over 90% of the major towns in Upper Nile and mostly in the Nuerland. While this is a catastrophic lost to Riek and his people, who bear the pain, this destruction is celebrated along tribal lines on the other side of the river and to Salva Kiir, it is an achievement that shall live as a legacy amongst his stone-age minded tribal supporters. So far over 50% of the Nuer population is displaced to the Internally displaced camps and Refugees camps in the neighboring country. This would be the first time in history that any part of Nuerland was scorched earth to this extent. It is a destruction like no other; however, the Nuer young men and women, who form the majority of the SPLA-IO, would rather die standing than surrendering. Majority of them are waving a NO-NO to the formation of the government on November 12, 2019.
On the other hand, Salva Kiir has been living at large since 2013. This would be the first time for Salva Kiir to have had complete dominance over the resources of South Sudan. His family runs more than 13 multinational corporations. According to the recent Sentry report, The Taking of South Sudan , “The local kleptocrats and their international partners—from Chinese-Malaysian oil giants and British tycoons to networks of traders from Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya and Uganda—have accumulated billions of dollars. The country’s natural resources have been plundered, lethal militia and military units responsible for atrocities have received financing and kleptocrats have lined their pockets with untold billions of dollars allocated by government programs meant to improve the livelihood of some of the poorest, most vulnerable people in the world. The spoils of this heist are coursing through the international financial system in the form of shell companies, stuffed bank accounts, luxury real estate and comfortable safe havens around the world for the extended families of those involved in violence and corruption.”
The Sentry report clearly highlights that “Kiir’s relatives have multiple partnerships with foreign investors. Corporate records reviewed by The Sentry indicate that Kiir family’s business portfolio includes dozens of companies, some of which list young children as shareholders. Members of the Kiir family also own stakes in banks, foreign exchange houses, airlines, oil companies, logistics firms, private security companies and more—often partnering with investors from across the globe. These business partners hail from more than a dozen countries around the world. There were joint ventures with several high-profile business people and politicians. Just two months after the December 2013 massacres in Juba, Conex Energy Co., a company controlled by Kiir’s daughter Adut, his son-in-law Nardos Ghebeyehu and Akot Lual Arech—a close advisor to the president affiliated with the NSS—formed the joint venture Caltec Corporation with South Sudan-registered Lukiza Limited.115 Gideon Moi, an influential senator who is the son of former Kenyan President Daniel Arap Moi, has a partial ownership stake in Lukiza.116 Caltec’s website describes the firm as a “Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) to specifically engage in the provision of services in the oil sector.” Waste management, drilling, logistics and air transportation are among the services it says it provides”
Certainly Salva Kiir is living in heaven on earth at the moment and by any chance if he succeeds to eliminate (kill or arrest) his main rival, Riek Machar, then he would have killed three birds with one stone, and definitely that would be a dream of a lifetime for any self styled dictator. It would ceil his declaration of supremacy and he would rule with untouchable iron fist for as long as he would want like Kim Jong Un of North Korea. None would have wished any otherwise if one were to be in his shoes, unfortunately, this peace agreement could be the last chance, not just for Dr. Riek Machar as Luka Biong wants us to believe, but also for President Salva Kiir. More than anything else, this R-ARCISS guarantees Salva Kiir at least another eight (8) years in J1(presidency) but if he bottles it, there are no guarantees that he would maintain the status quo for another eight years.
The author, Deng Elijah, is the Chief Executive Director of Nyamilepedia. For information regarding this specific article he can be reached through his email at dengsimon2000 at yahoo dot com or through Nyamilepedia at nyamilepedia@gmail.com. For short opinion articles and ideas, you can follow Deng on Facebook and Twitter by liking his personal page at Deng Elijah .
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